Fertilizer reserves significantly delayed raw materials to determine fertilizer prices

As of November, 35.8% of the dealers' reserve fertilizers were equivalent to 10% of the same period of last year; 32.1% of the dealers are still waiting and watching, and they dare not easily purchase goods. When reporters asked why they did not dare to purchase easily, manager Yang Jinkang of the Sixth Supply and Marketing Cooperative in Luxian, Shanxi Province, told reporters with a grim smile that the market was uncertain and the brains of the distributors had been stretched for a long time. In order to attend the meeting, the door of the supply and marketing cooperatives was shut down and deliberately rushed in. I hope that I can get some information from the meeting to judge the outlook. Unfortunately, the policy was revealed too little. In the tragedy of the previous two years, Yang Jinkang's supply and marketing cooperatives were also the victims. Prices remained high in the off-season, and they thought that they would be able to sell a good price the next year when the farmers were busy. As a result, the price dropped a lot in the second year and lost more than a hundred thousand, so this year, it is not easy to purchase. Most dealers stated that they have waited and watched for a long time and the market dynamics are still unpredictable. At present, they can only continue to wait and see so that the fertilizer period is significantly delayed. By December, if the national tariff policy has not yet been introduced, it will have to start storing a small amount of fertilizer at high prices, but not too much. A dealer in Guangdong was puzzled to tell this reporter that a few days ago, when the Internet pops up a QQ news, showing that the price of 18 kinds of vegetables in 36 large and medium-sized cities in October rose 33% year-on-year. Such a high price will be next year's farmers. The enthusiasm of vegetables will surely rise as never before, and naturally there will be more fertilization. It is reasonable to say that there is almost no possibility of falling fertilizer prices. The general manager Qiu Xiaowen of Lishui Hexing Agricultural Production Materials Co., Ltd. who came to attend the meeting told the reporter that he expects that prices will not fall next spring, mainly because the price of agricultural products has increased, and he plans to take the next season to follow the market in the next season. It is estimated that there will be many dealers selling.
Hu Yuankun, deputy director of the Crop Management Department of the Ministry of Agriculture, told representatives and distributors of the participating companies that the Ministry of Agriculture commissioned well-known experts from China Agricultural University to make predictions on the future demand for fertilizers in China. The forecast results show that it is expected that nitrogen fertilizers will be applied in the next few years. With dosages ranging from 33 million tons to 35 million tons, the demand for phosphate fertilizer will tend to be stable, but the price will become an important factor affecting the application amount. The price change will lead to fluctuations in the amount of phosphate fertilizer. If the price rises too much, it will inhibit the demand. Under this circumstance, the government's invisible hand will stick out to interfere with the market and manipulate the market. For example, during the spring plowing period in 2008, due to the rapid increase in the price of diammonium phosphate, the enthusiasm of farmers to purchase fertilizers has been affected. Phosphate fertilizer input has been reduced in some regions, and the reduction rate in some regions is as high as 20% to 30%. In this case, the state is not allowed to reappear. Now.
With regard to the fact that companies in the near-term period are busy exporting, causing domestic orders to repeatedly postpone supply difficulties, the relevant person in charge of the Raw Materials Division of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stated that although the import and export tariff policies have not yet been introduced, at present, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Commerce, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology The Ministry of Agriculture and other departments are studying and the tariff policy will follow an important principle: First, while ensuring the domestic demand for grain production, the government will support the fertilizer companies to look abroad and seek overseas interests.
The 71.9% of distributors who decide raw material prices for fertilizers believe that the fluctuation of raw material prices will be the main reason for affecting the market for phosphate and compound fertilizer in 2011; 45.6% of distributors believe that the forthcoming tariff policy will dominate the next year's agricultural product market; 38.6% of distribution Traders believe that inflation will also affect the future market for phosphate and compound fertilizers to some extent. As we all know, China is the world's largest producer and consumer of phosphate fertilizers, and also the largest importer and consumer of sulfur. As the raw material for the production of phosphate fertilizer, sulfur has always been highly dependent on foreign countries. In the past two years, the amount of sulphur imported has accounted for a large proportion of the world's sulphur trade.
It is understood that the supply of sulfur in the world in 2010 was tightly balanced and even insufficiently supplied. The global supply of sulfur did not increase significantly as expected, and the increase in supply lags behind the growth in demand. According to Zhao Lei, Consultant of the Beijing Representative Office of Sulfur Consulting, the adjustment of China’s fertilizer export policy will affect the global phosphate fertilizer supply structure. From now to the second quarter of 2011, the global sulfur market supply is still tight, especially the spot market, price fluctuations. Will be more frequent, to a certain extent will dominate the phosphorus and compound fertilizer market in 2011. The introduction of Xu Deren from the Department of International Trade and Cooperation of Sinochem Fertilizer Co., Ltd. shows this dependence more intuitively. He expects China's sulphur demand to be about 13.8 million tons in 2011, domestically only 3.8 million tons, and 10 million tons to rely on overseas imports. External dependence is high. In the first half of November, the price of sulphur, the price of international sulphur, could not be obstructed to rise again. The increase ranged from 3 to 15 US dollars per ton. In terms of solid sulfur, compared with late October, Iran's FOB price was 156-170 US dollars (ton price, the same below), low-end prices rose by 6 US dollars, high-end prices rose by 10 US dollars. The fluctuation of raw material prices has become the main factor affecting the phosphorus and compound fertilizer market in 2011. Here is the best proof.

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