Chemical industry market will narrow this year
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The major oil and chemical product market forecasts for 2011 are as follows:
First, the overall level of fertilizer prices rose around 2%. In 2011, the demand for fertilizers in China was slightly higher than in 2010, so the overall price of fertilizers rose by about 2%. The relative weakness of the urea market in 2010 may continue for a long period of time; the potash market will continue to adjust in 2011, and the price may remain roughly the same as in 2010; the phosphate fertilizer market will remain relatively stable, and prices will generally rise steadily.
Second, the price of refined oil rose by about 6%. In 2011, as the international oil price continues to rise, domestic refined oil prices will continue to rise, but the increase will fall sharply, and the total level of refined oil prices will rise by about 6%.
Third, the price of basic chemical raw materials rose by about 9%. At present, China's inorganic raw material market is abundant and its production capacity is relatively surplus. Most organic raw material markets have gaps, but they are facing fierce import competition. In 2011, the volatility of the basic chemical raw materials market may increase, and the increase will be smaller than in 2010, with an average increase of about 9%, which will fall by 5.5 percentage points.
Fourth, the price of synthetic materials rose by about 5%. The gap in the market for synthetic materials in China is still large. The gap is mainly concentrated in the high-end areas. The supply of low-end and middle-end markets is abundant, coupled with import pressure, and the competition is fierce. It is estimated that in 2011, the domestic synthetic material market may be in a turbulent situation, and the overall price level will increase slightly from the previous year by about 5%. The trend of the three major sectors of synthetic resin, synthetic rubber and synthetic fiber may change, and the synthetic fiber monomer market may experience a trend of high correction.
Fifth, the price of rubber products has risen by 2%. It is expected that the overall price level of the domestic rubber product market in 2011 will be basically the same as in 2010, or about 2% under the support of cost.
Sixth, the price of specialty chemicals (including fine chemicals) rose by about 2%. In 2011, under the support of cost, specialty chemicals will continue the trend in 2010, and prices will remain relatively high, with little volatility, or an increase of about 2%.