·Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the Association: The growth rate of passenger cars in 2018 is expected to reach 4%
In 2017, passenger car sales growth rate was only 2% (by the association data), and the growth rate further slowed down. In the big environment where slow growth has become the development trend of the automobile market, external factors such as the exit policy of small-displacement passenger car purchase tax, the subsidy of new energy vehicles may be greatly degraded, and the external factors such as the upgrading of consumption structure, in 2018, China’s passenger use Can the car market continue to climb? Or what kind of market performance will be presented is of great concern to all parties. Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the National Passenger Car Market Information Association (referred to as "the Federation"), is full of confidence in the growth of the auto market in 2018. He predicts that the passenger vehicle market will achieve a 4% growth rate in 2018. However, he is not optimistic about the rapid growth of the new energy vehicle market. Water Tank Fire Truck,Fire Fighting Truck,Fire Extinguisher Truck,Water Fire Fighting Truck ChengLi Special Automobile Co.,LTD , https://www.chenglispecialautomobile.com.cn
It is necessary to watch the passenger car market in 2018. “The mid-low end (county township) market in 2017 failed to strengthen, and with the arrival of the Spring Festival, it is expected to achieve relatively high growth in January 2018. After the opening, the market will slowly pick up.†Cui Dongshu said that to analyze the 2018 car market, we must first have a rational understanding and scientific analysis of the 2017 market downturn. “In 2017, the two sides were low in the middle and low in the first quarter. After the first quarter of zero growth, the growth rate in the second and third quarters was about 4%, and the growth rate in the fourth quarter was not high. This performance is transmitted to 2018 and cannot be negative growth. Especially in the first half of the year, the first and second quarters may show a relatively good growth trend. Only in the fourth quarter will there be some pressure." Cui Dongshu judged that in January 2018 there may be a better rebound, especially in the low-end market.
Cui Dongshu said that the ride will have strong growth expectations for the passenger car market in 2018. It will not be considered difficult to pick up in the future car market because of the 2% increase in 2017, especially in the report of the 19th National Congress. The rural revitalization strategy will bring more opportunities to the auto market. "The issue of agriculture, rural areas and farmers is a fundamental issue concerning the national economy and the people's livelihood. The automobile industry should make greater contributions to the three rural issues. At present, the public transportation system in large cities is perfect, and the popularity of private cars has reached a high level, while the private car in rural markets has become popular. Low, public transportation resources are also small, the population is surging in the big cities, and the consumption in the rural market is not prosperous. In the future, it should effectively promote the popularization of private cars in the county and township markets, especially to promote the rapid development of entry-level models and promote rural consumption. Improve and solve the problem of insufficient private car family. The economy must achieve short-term growth in order to achieve high-quality growth, that is, the growth of entry-level models should be better and stronger, so the market growth of independent cars, SUVs and MPVs It is necessary to rely on the rural revitalization strategy to achieve the problem of consumption upgrading and urban-rural balance," said Cui Dongshu.
Cui Dongshu also said that in the long run, the Chinese auto market is far from full and full of potential. "40 million is definitely not the ceiling of the Chinese car market, but now we have just come to the volume of 30 million, there is still a lot of potential."
The new energy vehicle market in 2018 is not optimistic. "New energy vehicles may be very difficult in 2018." This is the prospect of Cui Dongshu's development of the new energy vehicle market in 2018 in an interview with China Automotive News. He believes that 2018 is The growth momentum of new energy vehicles has shifted from the restriction of purchases and subsidies to the market-driven transition year. "In 2018, the license-supporting cities will limit their licenses for new energy. Beijing and Shanghai may not have any license increments. This is a disaster for the growth of medium and large-sized electric vehicles." Cui Dongshu said that license support is tight. Will bring a greater crisis to the product side. “In terms of products, the entry-level A00 electric vehicle is also facing the danger of a substantial reduction in subsidies. The downturn in the electric light passengers after the downturn is likely to be repeated on the A00 class and low driving range models. If the land subsidy policy is also largely exited The support policy non-linear exit exceeded expectations, and the double-points and other policies failed to play a role in time, which is likely to cause a serious setback in the development of the new energy vehicle market."
Cui Dongshu further stressed that due to the expected implementation of the double-point policy in 2018, the implementation of the new energy vehicle enterprises will be a major impact, which is not conducive to the implementation of enterprise planning. "Therefore, 2018 is the transition period between the old and new growth kinetic energy that the policy promotes to the market. The growth pressure of the auto market is relatively large, and the growth of new energy vehicles in 2018 should not be too optimistic." Cui Dongshu finally said.