2009 Drought Analysis

Since the beginning of winter in 2008, precipitation in North China, Huanghuai, and other places has been 70% to 90% less than in the same period of previous years. Soil loss has accelerated, and drought conditions have developed rapidly. In some areas, food crops are severely affected by drought, among which winter wheat is most severely affected by drought. Even the wheat-producing 100-day wheat seedlings died in the province of Maida. The areas affected by drought are concentrated and there is a large area of ​​spring drought. This year, drought-stricken areas in China are mainly concentrated in the main producing areas of winter wheat such as Henan, Shanxi and Anhui, and in the main autumn grain producing areas such as Heilongjiang and eastern Inner Mongolia. The drought situation is very serious. In particular, the severe drought that occurred in the main winter wheat production area in spring this year has a return period of 30 years. Once a local area reaches 50 years, the country’s crop drought area once reached 161 million mu, of which the main winter wheat production area is 1.53. Billion mu), 805 million mu more than the same period in years. After entering May, there were rare seedling droughts in most of Heilongjiang Province and eastern Inner Mongolia. At the most serious time, the total area of ​​arable land affected by the two provinces reached 137 million mu. Among them, the drought in Heilongjiang is even more serious.

Liao Yaoming, senior engineer of the National Climate Center, analyzed: “The long-term continued lack of rain has led to a wide range of meteorological conditions since the beginning of the winter in the central and southern parts of North China, the eastern part of the northwest region, Huanghuai, the northwestern Jianghuai, Jianghan, southern Jiangnan, and the eastern part of South China. Drought.” Severe meteorological droughts occurred in southern Hebei, most of Henan, central and southern Shanxi, central Shaanxi, western Shandong, southeastern Zhejiang, and central Fujian. Monitoring shows that from November 1, 2008 to January 20, 2009, precipitation in parts of Hebei, Shanxi, and Beijing was less than 1 mm. The average precipitation in North China is only 8.5 millimeters, which is the minimum value of the historical period since 2000, the fifth lowest value since 1951; the average precipitation in Hebei Province is the minimum value of the same period since 1951, and the history of Beijing since 1951 The same period of small value. Compared with the same period of the year, precipitation in northern winter wheat areas is generally less than 50% to 80%, of which, southern Hebei, central Shanxi, western Shandong, northern Henan and other places less than 80%. At the same time, the high temperatures have exacerbated the drought. From November to December 2008, temperatures in northern China, Huanghuai West and other places were high, windy weather was high, and soil loss was rapid, resulting in varying degrees of drought in some areas, and drought conditions developed rapidly. In January 2009, most of the arid regions in China continued to have little rain, resulting in a large range of moderate to severe meteorological droughts in the eastern North West, North China, West Yellow Huai, southeastern South China, and eastern South China. Liu Yaoming also mentioned: "According to meteorological drought index estimates, the current national meteorological drought area is about 24 million hectares, which is significantly higher than the same period last year (14 million hectares)."

Some analysts believe that the root cause of the drought in Northeast China is that the La Nina phenomenon causes weak subtropical highs in the winter, and weak water vapor transport in the west of the Pacific Ocean. At the same time, global atmospheric circulation anomalies cause warm air in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and the south branch trough is inactive. “The southeast and southwest lines have weaker water vapor transmission, which eventually led to the emergence of drought in 2009. It is not surprising that drought conditions in China are so rare, but such a large area of ​​rare drought is indeed a case in several decades. To the drought situation in the northeastern spring of 2009, in order to actively and effectively respond to this drought, the task of fighting drought in the drought-stricken areas is very arduous. All localities must overcome the suspicion of Ma Lukyu and firmly establish the idea of ​​fighting drought, preventing major disasters and fighting against long-term drought. We will put drought-fighting work on the agenda and ensure that leadership is in place, responsibilities are in place, organization is in place, and measures are in place.

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