June domestic construction steel price trend and July market trend forecast

In June, the domestic construction steel market remained volatile and fluctuating, but the adjustment range narrowed. Due to the decline of domestic macroeconomic data, on June 8, the central bank cut interest rates for the first time in the past three and a half years, proclaiming that monetary policy has been fully turned to loose, and will have certain favorable support for the later market. The current contradiction between supply and demand is still grim, steel mill output At a high level, market demand is still difficult to scale up. In addition, the European debt crisis has not shown signs of improvement. The fluctuations of crude oil and the US dollar have caused the recent fluctuations in futures and stock prices to fluctuate, affecting the mentality of the spot market. At the beginning of the month, prices in some regions rebounded slightly, but they did not continue, and the weak consolidation in the middle of the year. Due to the shortage of some specifications, the steel mills did not pay in time, and the shortage of specifications has obviously increased. From the trend of the whole month, the overall market has fluctuated and fluctuated throughout the month, and domestic construction steel inventories continued to show a slight downward trend. From the overall trend, the domestic construction steel market price in June showed a slight fluctuation in the previous month, and the trend tends to narrow. As of June 21, the average price of domestic 25mm rebar was 4,075 yuan / ton, up 22 yuan / ton over the same period of last month; Beijing 25mm price was 4,110 yuan / ton, down 10 yuan / ton over the same period last month; Shanghai The price of 18-25mm is 4030 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton over the same period of last month; the price of 18-25mm in Guangzhou is 4140 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton over the same period of last month; the average price of domestic 6.5mm high line is 4082 Yuan / ton, down 5 yuan / ton over the same period last month, Beijing 6.5mm high line price at 4080 yuan / ton, up 10 yuan over the same period last month, Shanghai 6.5mm high line price was 3980 yuan / ton, compared with the same period last month At flat, the price in Guangzhou was 4,220 yuan / ton, up 140 yuan / ton over the same period last month. At present, due to the high weather and the rainy season, the demand for downstream terminals is difficult to be greatly improved. The high-temperature power-limiting measures in July and August will reduce the supply of steel mills to the market. At the same time, due to the gradual decline of the domestic economy, macroeconomic policies will be introduced. Some new stimulus policies will help the market to develop in a good direction, and the business expectation mentality is higher; at the same time, European debt has not continued to deteriorate. For the market trend in July, with the introduction of some stimulating policies on the policy, Construction projects are expected to increase gradually, and railway investment will also increase, and market demand will improve. Domestic construction steel inventories are still in a downward trend. In July and August, steel mills have limited production and limited production. The contradiction between supply and demand will be eased, and merchants are expected to increase. It is expected that the domestic construction steel market price will gradually rebound in July. Review of domestic market trends in January and June: At the beginning of the month, the domestic building materials market prices have declined. The leading markets such as Beijing and Shanghai have fallen by 10-50, and shipments are light. In late May, due to the frequent favorable policies of the country, local steel traders have pulled up prices sharply. However, after entering June, the transactions in various places were not satisfactory. The support for prices was weak, and the prices in the previous period were rising too fast. Traders have called back. price. Recently, there are not many arrivals from local businesses, and the pressure on shipment is not large, which supports the stabilization of prices. In addition, on the evening of the 7th, the National Central Bank lowered the deposit and loan benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points, which clearly signaled the release of monetary easing, and also gave the market a certain degree of confidence. In the middle of the year, the domestic building materials market generally stabilized and prices rose slightly. Overall, the current market inventory pressure has eased, plus new resources are limited everywhere, merchants are relatively firm, some out of stock specifications (such as Beijing Level 2 22*12, Level 3 16*12, Level 3 12* 12) The quotation is relatively high. However, in essence, the mainstream quotation resources in the market are very bleak, and the phenomenon of dark sales of merchants has gradually increased. In the case of later resources, the price pressure is not impossible. However, due to the current low price and the low-cost resources are still acceptable, the price fluctuation will be relatively limited. In the latter half of the year, the prices of domestic building materials market were mixed. In Guangzhou and other places in southern China, due to the increase in ex-factory prices by steel mills, the third-tier thread borrowed up by 20 yuan/ton. The market in Beijing and Shanghai was sluggish due to market sluggishness. Falling 10 yuan. The sharp rise and fall of futures reflects that the market demand is obviously insufficient, which makes the business confidence worse. With the influence of the hot and dry rainy season, the construction site is reduced, and the price loosening is no longer an idiotic dream. However, the price flat policy of leading steel mills such as Shagang and Yonggang can still give certain support to the market stabilization. In the short term, the price may be in a state of repetition, and after a slight increase, the pressure will go down. Second, the construction steel mills output trends are different: According to the latest report of the China Iron and Steel Association, the crude steel output of key large and medium-sized steel enterprises in early June was 16.847 million tons, the national estimate is 1999.35 million tons, the average daily output They were 168.47 and 199.94 million tons respectively, which increased by 4.5 and 2.03 respectively. In the same period, the daily output of crude steel for small and medium-sized enterprises fell by 9.04 to 374,400 tons. The most obvious characteristic of the daily output of crude steel in early June was that the steel mills increased from the previous month, while the small and medium-sized enterprises decreased from the previous month, reflecting that the SMEs were more flexible in production and operation, while the output of large enterprises increased more in the chain than in order to use the marginal effect. It is basically consistent with the situation recently learned by some large steel mills. Most of the current measures are to adjust the variety structure. The production of iron and steelmaking has not been affected, and it is generally indicated that there is no willingness to reduce production. Despite the increase in crude steel output in the first half of the year, combined with the fundamentals of poor overall industry profitability and increased news of steel mill maintenance, it is expected that the monthly crude steel output in June will continue to decline. From the perspective of the output of steel mills in construction, from the planned output of steel mills in June, the total planned production of rebar is 9,045,500 tons, which is 363,900 tons less than that in May; the total planned production of wire rods is 5.09 million tons. The month increased by 239,000 tons. From the inspection and maintenance situation, the output of rebar affected by overhaul is 448,500 tons, of which maintenance is mainly concentrated in Panzhihua Steel, Weigang, Chongqing Iron and Steel and Dagang in Southwest China, Yangchun New Steel in South China, and New in Northeast China. Fugang, Beitai, other domestic steel mills maintained normal production levels; steel mills affected by factors such as overhaul and relocation of steel mills were 230,000 tons. Rebar production in June showed a downward trend and wire rods increased. At present, the rebar resources on the market have declined, and the steel mills have not shipped much, some resources are in short supply, and the possibility of price increases is high. (This article Source: Alibaba)

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